Napoli vs Bologna

Sunday evening at the Maradona, and Napoli arrive in a state nobody predicted in August: two consecutive defeats, both with the same shape. A 1-2 home loss to promoted Como, then a 2-3 at Inter in which they scored twice and still lost. The attack works; the defence has conceded five in two matches. Bologna come off a 2-2 with Sassuolo and a narrow 0-1 at Atalanta - a team that scores when it is allowed to and has not yet been allowed to by anyone good.

The case for the tip

Napoli have conceded in every match this season and scored in every match this season. That is the whole bet. The price of 1.75 assumes Napoli at home will impose themselves and shut Bologna out, but the evidence is pointing the other way: Como scored twice at this ground, and the defensive structure that won a title last spring has not turned up yet. Bologna’s 2-2 at home to Sassuolo showed they will trade goals when the game is open, and Napoli under pressure to respond will make it open. Napoli score - they always have. Bologna score - against this defence, they should.

The trap to avoid

Crisis-response matches. Sides on two straight defeats sometimes produce the ugly, controlled 1-0 that steadies everything, and Conte’s teams are historically capable of exactly that. If Napoli score first and shut the game down, Bologna’s attack has not shown it can force a way through a side defending a lead. That is the loser: 1-0 or 2-0 Napoli, and a defence that remembered how to defend at exactly the wrong moment for us. We have graded three BTTS losses on this ledger; this is the pick where the home defence, not the away attack, is the argument.

Verdict

Both teams to score at 1.75. Napoli have not kept a clean sheet all season and are priced as if they will start now.