Sunderland vs Arsenal

Saturday night on Wearside is the kind of fixture the table-toppers are supposed to win without drama, and Arsenal have made a habit of doing exactly that. Four matches, four wins, one goal conceded - and that goal came from the second-minute chaos of a London derby they still turned around. Sunderland have started life back in the top flight with fight and not much else: a 1-1 at Brentford, a home crowd that will make noise, and an attack that has not yet troubled a serious defence.

The case for the tip

The straight win at 1.50 is the correct call but a poor price, and the handicap markets are where this ledger has both bled and learned. The win-to-nil at 2.10 is a different bet: it asks Arsenal to do what they did at Villa Park and against Coventry, which is win without conceding, and it pays better than evens for it. Arsenal have held two of three Premier League opponents to zero shots on target or close to it, Raya has barely been tested outside the Chelsea match, and Sunderland’s attack is built around set-pieces against a side that defends them as well as anyone. Arsenal win, Sunderland fail to score. Both legs are the likelier outcome; the combination is priced as if one of them is a toss-up.

The trap to avoid

Promoted sides at home under the lights concede goals but they also score scrappy ones, and a single corner routine or a deflected shot kills this bet regardless of the scoreline. There is no push here - Arsenal winning 3-1 loses. If you want the insurance, Arsenal on the -1 handicap keeps the void safety net, but at the cost of the price. We took that net last week and it paid; this week the evidence says the clean sheet is the value.

Verdict

Arsenal to win to nil at 2.10. The best defence in the league, away to a side that has not yet shown it can score against one.